‘Continuity over novelty’: why environmental science needs to rethink its focus

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其次,Another metric available is a crash-level rate (i.e., number of crashes per population VMT). To illustrate why using a crash-level benchmark to compare to vehicle-level rate of an Automated Driving System (ADS) fleet creates a unit mismatch that could lead to incorrect conclusions, it’s useful to use a hypothetical, and simple, example. Consider a benchmark population that contains two vehicles that both drive 100 miles before crashing with each other (2 crashed vehicles, 1 crash, 200 population VMT). The crash-level rate is 0.5 crash per 100 miles (1 crash / 200 miles), while the vehicle-level rate is 1 crashed vehicle per 100 miles (2 crashed vehicles / 200 miles). This is akin to deriving benchmarks from police report crash data, where on average there are 1.8 vehicles involved in each crash and VMT data where VMT is estimated among all vehicles. Now consider a second ADS population that has 1 vehicle that also travels 100 miles before being involved in a crash with a vehicle that is not in the population. This situation is akin to how data is collected for ADS fleets. The total ADS fleet VMT is recorded, along with crashes involving an ADS vehicle. For the ADS fleet, the crashed vehicle (vehicle-level) rate is 1 crashed vehicle per 100 miles. If an analysis incorrectly compares the crash-level benchmark rate of 0.5 crashes per 100 miles to the ADS vehicle-level rate of 1 crashed vehicle per 100 miles, the conclusion would be that the ADS fleet crashes at a rate that is 2 times higher than the benchmark. The reality is that in this example, the ADS crash rate of 1 crashed vehicle per 100 miles is no different than the benchmark crashed vehicle rate, in which an individual driver of a vehicle was involved in 1 crash per 100 miles traveled.

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